![]() However, while the volume figures look relatively unscathed by lockdowns, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and export growth forecasts are far more pessimistic about the impact lockdowns have had on trade. Container volumes at eight of China’s top ports rose 25 percent to 16.8 million TEU in April from 13.4 million TEU in March, according to the Journal of Commerce. By contrast, other leading container hubs, including Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Qingdao, all saw substantial double-digit month-on-month percentage increases. Transport Ministry figures show month-on-month volumes at Shanghai falling 19 percent, from 3.8 million TEU in March to 3.1 million TEU in April. China’s Transport Ministry claims that of the country’s leading container ports, only Shanghai saw a month-on-month decline in April, the first full month of a city-wide lockdown that led to the closure of factories and the suspension of most trucking services. Its shutdown has had a severe impact, both on its population and on world trade. This epicenter of this uncertainty is Shanghai, the world’s largest container port. “This may lead to an increase in exports from China in the next few weeks, which will see ports in Europe and the U.S. Leung also noted that there has been an increase in imports that include manufacturing parts and raw materials into China in the past couple of weeks. “But this is only a temporary scenario, and further uncertainty sets in once the lockdowns are lifted,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. ![]() Thus far, there has been minimal impact on the Asia-Europe front, according to DHL’s June Ocean Freight Market Update. ![]() That has left the industry trying to measure the un-measurable: how much demand is backed up inside China, and what will be its impact once the lockdowns are eased?ĭespite the lockdowns, the port of Shanghai remains operational, and export volumes to Europe have dropped because less cargo is being delivered to the terminals. Imports of sub-components to manufacturers from elsewhere in Asia have also been hit due to the lack of trucking options. For weeks, rolling lockdowns have impeded the flow of exports to key ports. If they start to tail off and go down again then we hopefully can stay on the current trajectory.” but if they’re still going up as the schools are coming back, then I think we are going to have to reconsider some very difficult decisions.Across global freight markets, all eyes are firmly focused on China. “It will depend on what they’re doing when we come towards the end of the month. There was little prospect of the reversal of moves out of lockdown during August, because transmission will naturally be limited by the fact that schools are closed and people will spend much of the time outdoors, he said.īut he added: “Coming into September we’re almost certainly going to see infections reach a new daily peak going above the 68,000 daily level which was the previous record in January. “So a lot depends on our behaviour over the next couple of weeks.” “If we behave like they have done and change our behaviour too dramatically when the restrictions are changed, then we are going to end up having to do what they are doing now, which is reconsider reimposing restrictions,” said the Commons Health Committee chair. ![]()
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